Implications of Brexit

By now, the dust on the internationally watched vote by Britain to exit the Europen Union (Brexit) has settled. Views & Woes have been made, resignations rendered and protests erupted then gradually abated. What remains is to examine its means for the modern world as we know it and whether UK will initiate the withdrawal process. After the vote, there was immediate pressure from the President of the European Council Jean-Claude Juncker, that it is in the best interest of UK that they finalize on the exit immediately.

It is worth noting that the referendum was non-binding and merely advisory. This is essentially what was claimed by the 48% that voted to stay. Essentially, the UK still has an option of staying in the union. It would however seem like a complete waste of process and resources to ignore the need of the vast majority. The 52% voters who want the exit effected.

The European Union much like the East African community was established to facilitate free trade, free movement and good relations among European States. Before this, different sates had different policies that impeded their relations with each other. The goal of the Union was to harmonize laws in order to reduce such conflict.  Cooperation developed to the extent that there is a common currency (Euros) for members of the union. Being in such an arrangement meant that members shoulder gain and loses at equal footing. Richer states would be disadvantaged. For example, if that was the same arrangement in EAC region was hit by a recession, Kenya, which is seemingly the powerhouse of the region, will suffer more than the others.

Britain joined the European Economic Community on 1 January 1973, along with Denmark and Ireland.

In as much as this was beneficial to the UK, it brought about a set of problems. It for example, started struggling with immigration. Since its join, people flocked the state in search of greener pastures which saw to a rapid population increase. The current influx of migrants from war torn Middle East also does little to salvage the situation UK might have thought it was in. Country A, say, is being coerced to allow migrants in the thousands. Country B which is watching, knows that its turn is approaching once A is filled to capacity. So, what does B do? It leaves the Union to prevent those future obligations.

Was this Britain's notion of  being in the EU..?? You judge!

This is not a conclusion that Europe’s immigrant crisis might have triggered Brexit. Britain might have thought that being in the EU does it more harm than good. In 2015 the decision to exit the union was first brought.

Now that there is a majority vote to leave the EU, the world is watching for the initiation of due process to formally withdraw. Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union (which by now, must be the most read article worldwide) summarily provides that:

"Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements". Although it calls for a negotiated withdrawal between the seceding state and the rest of the EU, if no agreement is reached two years after the seceding state announced its intention to leave, it would cease to be subject to the treaties anyway (thus ensuring a right to unilateral withdrawal). Britain, known for having an unwritten constitution clearly did not have to struggle on choice of appropriate means to exit. So, if Article 50 is invoked today, the process might be concluded in 2019. Unless Britain decides to stay and stops holding the rest of the union by the throat, then anytime (be it in months or a year’s time) they decide to formally withdraw; then, their relation with EU will be running on a 2year timer.

Since the referendum was conducted, protests have arisen from pro-stay Brits condemning the exit. It is not yet clear what long-term implications Brexit has but the EU Treaty guarantees the continuity of rights and obligations of the European citizens belonging to a new state arising from the democratic secession of a European Union member state. It is however, highly unlikely that those who voted against Brexix would want to form their own state and remain under the wings of EU. Highly Unlikely! Additionally, Brexit could remove rights enshrined in the EU treaties - unless the UK agreed to keep them under a new settlement with the EU.

If at the end of the line, Britain decides that the exit was a terrible idea and it wants in again, it will have to apply to join like any new state. This is also a fathomable prediction given that most young people voted to stay. Statics show, most elderly people voted to exit. It may then lie on the young people to bring it back (decades later) in case the exit is finalized. Presently, knowing that historically, Britain doesn’t stay in one place at a time for too long, we might just live to see the BREXIT come to pass!

 

Please take us back.. we did not mean to BREXIT :(